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The Rasmussen Reports Track Record

2010 -- In December 2009, a full 11 months before Election Day, a Democratic strategist concluded that if the Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 elections. Other polls at the time suggested the Democrats would retain a comfortable majority. The Republicans gained 63 seats in the 2010 elections.

The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: "It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy."  Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show then-candidate Ron Johnson as a serious threat to former Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold and the first to document Arlen Specter’s troubles in both the Pennsylvania Republican and Democratic Primary races.

Rasmussen’s final 2010 projections were published in the Wall Street Journal projecting that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. The Republicans ended up with a gain of more than 60 House seats and 47 Senate seats. Scott Rasmussen noted that “it would be wise for all Republicans to remember that their team didn't win, the other team lost. Heading into 2012, voters will remain ready to vote against the party in power unless they are given a reason not to do so.”    

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Once again in 2010, Rasmussen Reports polling provided an accurate preview of Election Night outcomes. See how we fared compared to other polling firms in the competitive races around the nation.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, noted, “This was one tough election to poll and forecast. Rasmussen Reports caught the major trends of the election year nationally and in most states.”

2009— Rasmussen Reports was closest of all polling firms to the actual results in the New Jersey governor’s race. On reviewing that race, longtime political analyst Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!" We also projected accurately a comfortable victory for Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia.

2008-- Barack Obama won 53%-46%, and our final poll showed him winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. While many other firms showed high volatility and bounced around from day to day, our numbers remained steady. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama attracting more than 50% of the vote and holding a stable, solid lead.

Visit a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results.

See also our 2008 state results for Senate and governor.  

2006— Rasmussen Reports was the first to show Republican Senator Conrad Burns in trouble in Montana, the first to show Republican Senator George Allen trailing in his bid for reelection in Virginia and the first to project that Democrats could win control of the Senate. See 2006 results for Senate and Governor.  

2004-- George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote, while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point (see our 2004 results).

Rasmussen Reports was founded in October 2003.

Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

The Washington Post has called Scott Rasmussen “a driving force in American politics.”   The Wall Street Journal says he is “America’s leading insurgent pollster.”

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