Election 2014: North Carolina Senate

Kay Hagan, long viewed as perhaps the Senate’s most endangered Democrat, is still hanging in there in the closing days of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely North Carolina Voters shows Hagan with 47% of the vote to Republican challenger Thom Tillis’ 46%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and another three percent (3%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

North Carolina has early voting, and 30% of the voters in the state say they already have cast their ballot. Among these voters, Hagan leads 50% to 44%.

The incumbent’s lead had narrowed to 48% to 46% by the beginning of this month after she posted a 45% to 39% advantage in September.

North Carolina remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the Senate. Hagan was elected to the Senate in 2008 with 53% support.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Tar Heel voters say they have made up their minds how they are going to vote, and the candidates are tied at 49% apiece among these voters.

Ninety percent (90%) of all voters in the state say they are definitely going to vote in this contest. Tillis is ahead 48% to 46% among this group.

Only 29% of North Carolina voters think the country is heading in the right direction, while 63% say it’s gotten off on the wrong track. That’s in line with voter attitudes nationally.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters who feel the country is heading in the right direction favor Hagan. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those who say America is on the wrong track prefer Tillis.

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The survey of 982 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 28-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Thirty-six U.S. Senate seats are at stake this November. Presently, 21 of them are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Democrats currently have a 53-to-45 majority over Republicans in the Senate. In addition, there are two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.

Tillis has the support of 80% of Republicans in North Carolina and leads by 10 points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of the state’s Democrats support Hagan.

Just 41% of all voters in the state have a favorable opinion of the new national health care law that Hagan voted for in the Senate, while 53% view it unfavorably. This includes 18% with a Very Favorable opinion and 41% with a Very Unfavorable one, comparable to attitudes nationwide. 

Ninety-four percent (94%) of those who view Obamacare Very Favorably support Hagan. Tillis has the backing of 88% of voters with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the law.

Immigration is a hot topic in this race, and 64% of the state’s voters believe gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living in the United States. Just 27% put legalizing illegal immigrants first. This is even higher support for border control than is found among voters nationwide.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters who put border control first support Tillis. Hagan has the votes from 85% of those who see legalization of those who are already here as more important.

Forty-one percent (41%) of North Carolina voters say it’s better when one political party controls the entire Congress. Nearly as many (38%) think it’s better when different parties control the Senate and the House of Representatives, the way it is now. Twenty-one percent (21%) are undecided. That’s slightly higher support for different parties in power than is found nationally.

Tillis earns 56% of the vote from those who think one-party rule in Congress is better and has a narrow 47% to 43% lead among undecideds. Hagan gets 58% support from voters who feel it’s better when different parties control the houses of Congress.

Hagan is viewed favorably by 49% of North Carolina voters and unfavorably by 49%. This includes 27% with a Very Favorable opinion of her and 36% with a Very Unfavorable one.

For Tillis, favorables are 46%, unfavorable 49%. This includes 22% with a Very Favorable view of the GOP candidate and 37% who see him Very Unfavorably.

See our most recent numbers from the Senate races in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois,Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, 
Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special), Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Carolina (special), South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. 

Forty-eight percent (48%) of North Carolina voters now approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 51% disapprove. This includes 28% who Strongly Approve and 43% who Strongly Disapprove, giving the president a better job approval rating in North Carolina than he earns nationally.

Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of the job performance of Republican Governor Pat McCrory, including 21% who Strongly Approve. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove of the job he’s doing, with 29% who Strongly Disapprove.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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