Here’s How the GOP Race Looks Now

The outsiders are still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports’ latest look at the Republican presidential primary race following Tuesday night’s debate.

Our latest national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Donald Trump with 27% support. Twenty percent (20%) say they would vote for Dr. Ben Carson if the GOP presidential primary were held in their state today.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida picks up 16% of the vote, while 13% prefer Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Eight percent (8%) say they would vote for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, while support for ex-Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has fallen back to four percent (4%). Seven percent (7%) say they would choose one of the other candidates in the race. Five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Trump took the lead after the first debate in early August with 17% of the GOP vote, followed by Bush and Rubio each at 10%. Then it was Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker with nine percent (9%) support each, followed by Cruz at seven percent (7%). Walker has since dropped out of the race.

Carson gained ground in surveys following the second and third debates. The latest survey shows Rubio and Cruz as the beneficiaries of strong performances at this week’s debate.

Most Republican voters still see Trump as their party’s likely presidential nominee in our weekly Trump Change survey. Those numbers will be updated again at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.

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The national telephone survey of 672 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 11-12, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican candidates have a strong military difference of opinion. 

Trump leads among conservative Republicans who are the key to success in the party’s upcoming state primaries, but he holds just a narrow 25% to 21% edge on Carson. Rubio and Cruz tally 19% and 18% respectively among these voters.

Among all GOP voters, men and women are in general agreement, although women don’t have quite as much enthusiasm for Cruz.

The younger the Republican, the more likely he or she is to choose Trump.

Just 56% of all Republicans think their party has a plan for the future. The early success of candidates like Trump and Carson who are outside the GOP establishment is seen as a reflection of the unhappiness the party’s voters have with business as usual.

Democrats hold their second debate tomorrow night, and Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on that race early next week. But front-runner Hillary Clinton is expected to emerge unscathed.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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